Research & Consulting

Copper Tailings Valorization in the EU: Scenarios to 2050

Lead Researcher

Research case study

EU-wide prospective LCA of copper tailings reprocessing to 2050. Mineral valorization into ceramics and cement cuts about 2 Mt CO2-eq; metal recovery cuts toxicity sharply but adds energy load. Recovered metals cover about 2% of EU copper demand.

About this study.

I led this EU-scale prospective LCA as first author with ETH Zurich and University of Bologna, published in Science of the Total Environment. We compared 2020 disposal with three 2050 routes for sulfidic copper tailings: business-as-usual storage and backfill, mineral valorization into ceramics and CSA cement, and combined metal and mineral recovery into copper, zinc, geopolymer, and sulfuric acid. Background energy follows an SSP2-RCP1.9 1.5C pathway modelled with IMAGE and premise. The paper is open access under CC BY 4.0.

Selected figures.

Figures from the published work behind this study. Select any figure to open it full size.

Methodological framework of the study: copper demand and tailings management options for scenarios S0 to S3 feed available tailings flows, which are combined with SSP background scenarios from IMAGE, quantified with prospective LCA, and compared across scenarios before a sensitivity analysis. — Study framework: copper demand and technology options across S0 to S3 define available tailings flows, future background scenarios from IMAGE are coupled in, and prospective LCA quantifies impacts and avoided primary production before scenario comparison and sensitivity analysis.Adrianto et al. (2023). Science of the Total Environment 871, 162038. Open access under CC BY 4.0.

Flowsheet of EU copper tailings routes: business-as-usual disposal and backfill, mineral valorization to CSA cement and ceramic tile, and metal and mineral recovery to geopolymer, copper, zinc, sulfuric acid, and heat. — Three routes compared for 2050: business-as-usual storage and backfill, mineral valorization to cement and ceramics, and combined metal and mineral recovery with byproducts.Adrianto et al. (2023). Science of the Total Environment 871, 162038. Open access under CC BY 4.0.

Prospective impacts of EU copper tailings options on climate change in million tonnes CO2-eq and freshwater ecotoxicity in billion CTUe, from 2020 disposal to 2050 mineral valorization and metal recovery. — Mineral valorization turns net climate impacts negative at about minus 2 Mt CO2-eq, while metal recovery cuts ecotoxicity close to zero but keeps a net climate load.Adrianto et al. (2023). Science of the Total Environment 871, 162038. Open access under CC BY 4.0.

Greenhouse gas emissions embodied in EU copper demand from 2020 through 2050 scenarios with mineral valorization and metal recovery, against the 80 percent reduction 1.5C pathway. — Emissions embodied in EU copper demand: cleaner power plus tailings reprocessing narrows the gap by 36 to 50 percent against 2020, short of the 1.5C pathway.Adrianto et al. (2023). Science of the Total Environment 871, 162038. Open access under CC BY 4.0.

Discussion.

Mineral valorization lowers climate impacts because it displaces fired ceramics and cement, saving around 2 Mt CO2-eq in 2050. Metal recovery lowers freshwater ecotoxicity to a small fraction of business-as-usual, because it removes acid-forming sulfides and avoids upstream mining waste. The cost shows up on the other side: firing and chemical extraction use more energy, so the metal route ends with a net climate load of about 8 Mt CO2-eq in the base case.

Even with cleaner power and better plant efficiency, reprocessing alone does not reach the 1.5C pathway for EU copper, leaving a 36 to 50% gap against 2020. Closing it takes demand-side steps alongside plant work: longer product life, leaner copper use per service, and higher collection for recycling. Market uptake also caps the win, with building products limited to 10 to 15% of supply by raw-material and acceptance constraints.

More work.

Next projectSustainable Chemistry and Materials from Copper Tailings: A Prospective LCA